This is Part 2 in a series reviewing the 2022 Colorado General Election
Colorado Democrats gained seats in the 2022 election.
Many Liberty-minded Coloradoans were disappointed with the 2022 election, but the truth is that Republicans could have lost much more after the repeal of Roe v Wade, and the Bruen decision.
Colorado has 35 State Senators and 65 State Representatives.
It’s hard to believe that 100 legislators can represent 5.8 million individuals, but until the State Constitution can be amended, this is what we are stuck with.
According to Ballotpedia, each State Senator represents 164,963 Colorado residents.
In 2022, Democrats gained two senate seats, to bring their majority to twenty three seats, compared to Republican’s twelve seats.
Democrats have maintained a majority in the State Senate since the 2018 election.
After the 2020 census, Colorado’s political districts have changed, and with the changes come new opportunities.
Let’s take a look at the closest races of the 2022 election.
Senate District 3
Democrat Nick Hinrichsen 51.29% – 33,795 votes
Republican Stephen A. Varela 48.71% – 32,090 votes
The margin of victory was only 1,705 votes in 2022.
Under the old pre-2022 map, District 3 was not competitive, with Democrat Leroy Garcia winning handily in 2018 and 2014.
Under the new map, District 3 now makes up the entire county of Pueblo.
District 3 was also at the center of the 2013 recalls, with the seat being flipped to a Republican.
In 2020, Pueblo narrowly went for Biden with 43,772 votes against Trump’s 42,252. This was only a 1,520 vote differential.
In 2016, Pueblo went for Trump with 36,265 votes to Clinton’s 35,875. Only a 390 vote difference.
Spending
Note: These numbers are not exhaustive, these are some of the biggest spenders. Source was TRACER.
Hinrichsen’s campaign spent $169,000 in his winning bid.
Varela’s campaign spent $138,500.
Hinrichsen was supported by several groups outside of his campaign, including Centennial State Prosperity Action ($370,000 spent among their candidates), All Together Colorado (over $11 million spent among their candidates), Colorado Values Project, and Coloradans Creating Opportunities ($2.1 million spent among their candidates).
Varela was supported by Unite for Colorado Action IEC (over $4.1 million spent among their candidates), Senate Majority Fund (at least $461,000 spent on this campaign and nearly $8 million spent in total), Ready Colorado Action Fund (nearly $1.9 million spent among their candidates), Convention of States Political Fund Colorado (nearly $324,000 spent among their candidates), Colorado Republican Committee ($406,000 spent among their candidates).
Results Map from the Secretary of State:
District 3 Map from the Colorado Legislative Website:
Final Thoughts: Pueblo County is experiencing horrific crime, and gang violence. If Republicans can address these issues, they can win. Pueblo is also a very traditional community with a strong Hispanic and Catholic heritage. These traditions are more in line with Republican values than Democratic values. The Republican community should start organizing now. If a future candidate can start making a positive impact in the community now, they will have a very good chance in 2026.
District 11
Democrat Tony Exum 49.94% – 20,258 votes
Republican Dennis Hisey 44.48% – 18,042 votes
Libertarian Daryl Kuiper 5.58% – 2,264 votes
The margin of victory was only 2,216 votes in 2022.
Kuiper is considered a spoiler in this race because he received more votes than the margin of victory between the winner and the runner-up.
Under the old pre-2022 map, District 11 was less competitive, with Democrat Pete Lee winning with 62% of the vote in 2018, and Democrat Michael Merrifield winning with 52.2% of the vote in 2014.
District 11 is a portion of El Paso county.
District 11 was also flipped to a Republican seat during the 2013 recalls.
In 2020, El Paso handily went for Trump with 202,828 votes to Biden’s 161,941. This was a 40,887 differential.
In 2016, El Paso went for Trump with 179,228 votes to Clinton’s 108,010. A massive 71,218 vote differential.
Spending
Note: These numbers are not exhaustive, these are some of the biggest spenders. Source was TRACER. I’m not going to repeat dollars spent or links from previously mentioned groups.
Exum’s campaign spent $165,000 in his winning bid.
Hisey’s campaign spent $122,000.
Kuiper’s campaign reported spending $0.
Exum was supported by Centennial State Prosperity Action, All Together Colorado, Colorado Values Project, The Bell Action Network, Coloradans Creating Opportunities ($2.1 million spent among their candidates).
Hisey was supported by Unite for Colorado Action IEC, Senate Majority Fund, Better Jobs Coalition ($486,000 spent among their their candidates).
Results Map from the Secretary of State:
District 11 Map from the Colorado Legislative Website:
Final Thoughts: El Paso Republicans must ensure their grip on the county and do everything in their power to push out Democratic voters. Recruiting candidates and volunteers, and building a strong GOP in El Paso County should be the biggest priority before the next election. El Paso County and Colorado Springs have the opportunity to become “the second capitol” of Colorado and provide a clear distinction with Denver. If El Paso and Colorado Springs are able to create a better environment for families, workers, and businesses, they can outperform Denver.
District 15
Democrat Janice Marchman 50.60% – 43,068 votes
Republican Rob Woodward 49.40% – 42,054 votes
The margin of victory was only 1,014 votes in 2022.
Under the old pre-2022 map, District 15 was less competitive, with Republican Rob Woodward winning with 53.1% of the vote in 2018, and Republican Kevin Lundberg running unopposed in 2014.
District 15 is in both Larimer and Boulder counties.
Woodward won in Larimer with 53.98% of the vote (38,326 votes).
Marchman won in Boulder with 73.6% of the vote (10,392 votes).
Spending
Note: These numbers are not exhaustive, these are some of the biggest spenders. Source was TRACER. I’m not going to repeat dollars spent or links from previously mentioned groups.
Marchman’s campaign spent $197,000 in her winning bid.
Woodward’s campaign spent $276,500.
Marchman was supported by All Together Colorado, Boulder County Democratic Party ($145,000 spent among their candidates), Planned Parenthood Votes Colorado Independent Expenditure Committee ($90,500 spent among their candidates), Progressive Voters Guide Ballot IEC ($9,450 spent among their candidates), Conservation Colorado Victory Fund ($2 million spent among their candidates), Cobalt Advocates IEC ($332,000 spent among their candidates).
Woodward was supported by Quality Healthcare for Colorado (nearly $88,000 spent among their candidates), Americans for Prosperity Action ($253,000 in non-monetary contributions among their candidates), Convention of States Political Fund Colorado, NRA Political Victory Fund IEC ($27,500 spent among their candidates).
Results Map from the Secretary of State:
District 15 Map from the Colorado Legislative Website:
Final Thoughts: Larimer County Republicans need to overpower the Boulder County Democrats in the next election. If a third-party candidate can run to the left of the Democrat, it could help pull votes away from the Democratic candidate. The Larimer County GOP only needs to increase turnout, and the Boulder County GOP can do the same. As close as this race was, it’s very feasible that a Republican can win. Also, the Boulder GOP can also mobilize Colorado University (CU) and Colorado State University (CSU) students, who are probably more open to the GOP than in previous years.
Non-competitive Senate Races in 2022
Republican Strongholds:
District 1 – 100% (unopposed) – 53,199 votes
District 4 – 60.84% – 19,806 votes
District 7 – 70.06% – 30,176 votes
District 9 – 62.31% – 21,939 votes
District 30 – 53.82% – 6,629 votes
District 35 – 74.3% – 38,248 votes
Democratic Strongholds:
District 8 – 55.7% – 8,338 votes
District 20 – 54.22% – 9,724 votes
District 22 – 67.29% – 23,899 votes
District 24 – 53.82% – 5,824 votes
District 25 – 61.49% – 16,228 votes
District 27 – 54.89% – 7,104 votes
District 32 – 76% – 30,530 votes
District 34 – 100% (unopposed) – 48,831 votes
Final Thoughts
These three Senate seats can be flipped. Without considering the 2024 election, and assuming the safe seats remain safe, this would mean Republicans would have 15 seats to the 20 Democratic seats. This would go a long way to help defend the rights of Colorado citizens.
Competitive races can be won with strong organization. Developing candidates, and campaign infrastructure will pay off, but the process must start now.
Recognizing and addressing specific issues in these communities will shift votes. Even though Colorado is considered a blue state, the reality is that most Colorado voters are unaffiliated, and potentially open to voting of any party.
Libertarians, and other third parties should run candidates with left-of-center messaging to pull votes away from the Democratic candidate. This could result in a win for Republicans, and restore balance to the State Legislature. Libertarian candidates should also focus on Democratic strongholds, attacking their candidates on their failure to achieve criminal justice reform and their failure to protect civil liberties.
Liberty wins with one person at a time. One volunteer. One donor. One candidate. One person can be the difference maker.
The Republican Party has four years to plan on how they are going to take back these three districts.
Hinrichsen, Exum, and Marchman must be watched closely, and their records exposed. These politicians must become household names in their districts for their bad behavior. With the help of activists, and new media organizations, a strong case can be built against these candidates over the next four years.
Of course, having a bad opponent isn’t always enough to win. Republicans in each of these counties should be recruiting candidates, helping them gain stature in the community, and building a war chest.
Hardworking candidates who have volunteers and money will win in 2026.
Will they be Republicans or Democrats?
That just might be up to you..
What do you think? Leave a Comment Below!
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